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The three teams conducted independent assessments, using different approaches involving statistical analyses of the historical temperature record and the results of thousands of simulations with state-of-the-art climate models.
The KNMI and Melbourne teams found that the odds of average temperatures across Europe reaching this year’s record-setting levels were increased by at least 35 to 80 times due to human influence on our climate.
Rather, an independent research firm conducted the survey in May.
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The team at the University of Oxford found that, even on a more local scale where variability is often greater, global warming had increased the odds of a year as hot as the one just experienced in most of continental Europe by at least a factor of 10.
Climate change makes hot years hotter and more common.
Initial estimates from KNMI forecast the January-December annual mean temperature for Europe to be 10.5ºC, or 0.3ºC above the previous record set in 2007.